Quantum technology: from the lab to the market
Quantum technology is globally recognised as a key technology for the future. With applications in vital infrastructure, logistics, cybersecurity, and healthcare, quantum technology offers unique opportunities. This makes the technology relevant both for strengthening the Netherlands’ economic position and for generating new solutions to societal challenges—solutions that may not even be conceivable today. Within the National Technology Strategy, quantum technology is therefore designated as one of the focal points of Dutch innovation policy. This policy is primarily aimed at increasing the supply of new quantum innovations in the Netherlands.
At present, the Netherlands, like other countries, is in an early phase where the market can largely be described as a knowledge market, consisting mainly of research institutions and technology developers. Globally, the step towards large-scale economic application of quantum technology has not yet been taken. Creating real market value through end-users who demand these solutions—such as pharmaceutical companies, logistics firms, or financial institutions—is only gradually emerging.
The pull of demand-driven innovation policy
At the same time, the Netherlands faces various societal challenges that demand innovative solutions—game changers that will deliver breakthroughs. Innovation policy is therefore increasingly being used to steer innovation towards solving these challenges. Through concrete goals—so-called missions—the Dutch mission-driven innovation policy aims to mobilise innovation in the Netherlands for complex societal challenges, such as living longer in good health or achieving the energy transition.
In practice, however, it proves difficult to unite these two worlds: mission domains that require solutions and innovation-driven ecosystems that offer innovative solutions often remain separate, with little or no interaction. As a result, a mission-driven innovation ecosystem does not materialise, and a wealth of promising innovative solutions often remains stuck ‘in the lab’, without this knowledge being effectively converted into economic value (also known as the innovation paradox).
To change this, the Centre for Quantum & Society of Quantum Delta NL (QDNL), technical experts from TNO (Applied Cryptography and Quantum Algorithms department), and TNO Vector joined forces for an innovative study on the role of quantum technology in addressing societal challenges. The aim of this study is to identify points of alignment between the supply of and demand for innovations, enabling dialogue between these worlds and potentially accelerating the market value of quantum technology.
Developing and applying a prospective value methodology
Over the past year, we have worked on a new methodology to make the future value of quantum technology for societal challenges visible: the prospective value methodology. This is a new foresight method developed by TNO Vector to make the future value of emerging technologies tangible, particularly because their value is often unknown as it lies in the future. Here, ‘value’ is expressed as the contribution to societal challenges. Earlier this year, this method was applied to two important social domains: the energy transition and the water system. These domains were selected based on QDNL priorities and relevant international initiatives, such as the Open Quantum Institute hosted by CERN and established by GESDA.
To map quantum applications for the energy transition, the energy transition was divided into seven ‘dominant’ transition pathways: hydrogen, solar, wind, electricity grids, nuclear, carbon, and heat. These pathways were inspired by the National Energy System Plan for 2050. For each domain, the various applications were visualised in a single overview. This overview is also available online and is interactive: by clicking on an application, the problem, the (quantum) solution, and the associated impact are briefly described, including a link to a source for further information. This is important to ensure the scientific validity of the applications and allows the public to access more information for the potential development of new applications.
A similar approach was used to study quantum technology applications for the water system. The foundation for this was laid during an event organised by the United Nations International Computing Centre (UNICC) in The Hague at the end of last year. Together with a group of international experts, we created a logical structure of the water system and identified initial applications. This foundation was then further developed with expertise from organisations such as Deltares.
Initial insights into the role of quantum technology in the energy and water domains
Most quantum computing applications currently focus on optimisation problems that occur in many situations. In the longer term, there are also simulation problems that can contribute to the development of new materials, which in turn can be used to improve the performance of solar panels, electrolysers, or desalination plants. Many applications of quantum sensors focus on (subsurface) imaging and infrastructure monitoring, enabling more efficient use of sustainable energy and water resources. These sensors can also be used to make precise measurements of the (chemical) composition of materials and liquids. Finally, quantum communication networks can contribute to secure digital infrastructures needed for the control and monitoring of energy and water systems.
It is important to emphasise that these applications are still in an early and experimental stage. Much research and development is needed before they can be effectively applied in practice and have large-scale impact. In addition to these technological challenges, investment will also be required in knowledge development, talent, and infrastructure to accelerate the adoption of quantum technology. Nevertheless, it is important to highlight and further develop these applications now, as the energy transition and water system will remain important societal domains in the long term.
Quantum technology for a healthier society
As a third application domain, we chose healthcare, and the results are now available in the visual Quantum Technology for Health & Life Sciences. The visual shows how potential applications within quantum computing, sensing, and communication find their way into various healthcare environments: from home care and GP practices to hospitals, laboratories, and pharmaceutical companies.
Healthcare faces major challenges: care must become more personalised, diagnoses faster, and treatments more effective. Quantum technology may offer valuable solutions here. In the visual, we systematically map these applications based on an extensive inventory of use cases. Insights from TNO experts (such as Geurt Stokman and Jildau Bouwman) were included, as well as from external specialists in the pharmaceutical industry, quantum computing companies (such as PsiQuantum), and clinical practice. By combining these diverse perspectives, applications have been identified in medical research and innovation, diagnostics, treatment and care, infrastructure and operations, and public health and policy.
For example, quantum computing can be used to simulate molecules for drug development, analyse genetic and clinical data for early disease detection, or optimise treatment plans. Quantum sensors are suitable for extremely sensitive, often non-invasive measurements, which can lead to improved ultrasound, magnetocardiography, or measurement of metabolic activity at the cellular level. These applications can provide new insights for fundamental research and contribute to early diagnosis, personalised care, and greater patient comfort. Finally, quantum communication and network protocols can ensure secure data exchange—crucial for protecting sensitive patient information and facilitating collaboration between healthcare institutions.
Significant potential impact and our next steps
In total, we have identified more than one hundred applications where quantum technology can contribute to societal missions. TNO’s work does not stop at mapping these applications: some are currently being further developed into innovative solutions in the Quantum Application Lab together with end-users. Our visuals have also reached a wide audience so far: from policymakers in Brussels to teachers, children, and grandparents. In this way, we also contribute to the societal debate on quantum technology.
Finally, we aim to continue our successful collaboration with the QDNL Centre for Quantum and Society and apply our method to several other relevant domains. Keep an eye on our social media channels and website for updates.