From containers to the cloud – How control points turn into chokepoints

As outlined in an earlier publication, control points are unique and valuable business activities that others are highly dependent on. From a geopolitical and geo-economic perspective, a control point can refer to the position of a single company (such as ASML’s position in the global chip industry), but also to a geographically concentrated group of companies (for example, the Dutch cluster of seed breeding firms).

‘Control points are not inherently problematic, as long as dependencies are robust and reciprocal,’ researcher Daan Pisa explains. ‘But when these dependencies are marked by one-sided dominance, a lack of alternatives, or political influence, they become risky and can quickly turn into vulnerabilities that affect our strategic autonomy.’ When control points evolve into chokepoints, access to essential goods, services or infrastructure comes under pressure, with direct consequences for public interests.

To illustrate this thinking, the insight paper explores two sectors where foreign control points could turn into potential chokepoints for the Netherlands and Europe.

Case 1: Maritime Industry

Shipping is the logistical lifeblood of the global economy: over 90% of international trade is transported overseas. The sector is heavily concentrated around China. Chinese companies dominate shipbuilding, control a significant share of global ports, and manage vast transport networks. This gives China control points that, in times of geopolitical tension, could become maritime chokepoints. China has previously shown its willingness to restrict exports, such as critical raw materials that are barred from foreign defence supply chains.

For Europe and the Netherlands, this means our supply – from energy and food to medical products – depends on infrastructure that is largely outside our sphere of influence. This calls for a coordinated European strategy: where should we retain capabilities in our own hands, and where is collaboration or diversification essential to reduce vulnerabilities?

Case 2: Cloud services

A similar pattern emerges in the digital realm. Cloud infrastructure is the digital backbone of organisations and society – from government systems and hospitals to SMEs. Nearly 70% of the global cloud market is controlled by three American hyperscalers: Amazon, Microsoft and Google.

‘This dominance leads to lock-in effects,’ researcher Veerle Zuurdeeg says. ‘Switching to alternatives is often practically impossible. This creates a digital chokepoint, where critical European data and services depend on American companies and legislation. Incidents, such as the blocking of email services at international organisations, make this risk tangible.’

A European perspective on cloud services requires more than regulation alone: investment and innovation are also needed to strengthen digital sovereignty. The goal is a digital backbone that is reliable, scalable and independent, aligned with European values and standards.

Research and Technology Organisations (RTOs) like TNO and its European sister organisations have a role to play in this broader digital transformation, with expertise in federated and collaborative alternatives that help reduce dependencies – without creating new ones.

Navigating dependencies

The cases of the maritime industry and cloud services illustrate how foreign control points can evolve into risky chokepoints for the Netherlands and Europe. Using the criteria (Value, Uniqueness, Dependency) and underlying analytical methods, the control point lens enables us to identify such strategic positions within sectors.

This helps us map vulnerabilities more clearly and provides actionable insights to strengthen strategic autonomy and economic resilience. It’s not just about identifying risks, but also about developing alternatives and fostering our own control points to create more reciprocal dependencies. Because those who wish to reach safe harbour must learn to navigate and mitigate their dependencies.