Key player or bystander?

In the report ‘Key player or bystander?’, TNO Vector, in collaboration with the Ministry of Defence, outlines four future scenarios for 2035 that explore what a world with large‑scale quantum computers could look like. The analysis focuses in particular on how access to this asset - or the lack of it - may shift the international balance of power, security, and dependencies. It also examines which strategic choices we need to make today in order to be prepared for the future.

This article offers an initial insight into the four future scenarios that have been developed. The full report contains more extensive descriptions, insights, and analyses.

Quantum computing and our digital security

Quantum computers exploit the unique properties of quantum mechanics, which could enable them to solve certain mathematical problems much faster than classical computers. A key example is Shor’s algorithm: when executed on a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, it can undermine the mathematical foundations of widely used encryption methods. This forms a threat to the security of most our digital communication.

Although current quantum computers are not yet sufficiently powerful, the risk already exists due to the “store now, decrypt later” (SNDL) threat. Data intercepted today may be stored, and decrypted in the future once a quantum computer reaches the required level of capability. For this reason, the transition to quantum‑safe encryption - cryptography that is resilient to attacks by quantum computers - is already urgent.

Scenario analysis as a tool for strategic preparedness

To better understand what a future shaped by quantum computers might look like, scenario analysis is used: a method for exploring multiple plausible future outlooks under conditions of high uncertainty. This approach helps to identify emerging trends, risks and opportunities, and supports the development of strategies that are robust across different possible outcomes.

For this scenario analysis, two core questions were plotted against each other:

1. Does the Netherlands have access to a quantum computer capable of executing Shor’s algorithm?
2. Do other countries have access to such a quantum computer?

Together, these questions result in four possible future scenarios, with 2035 as the time horizon. Since the implications of these scenarios extend beyond purely technological considerations, each scenario analyses how geopolitics, regulations, ethics, and societal factors shape these potential futures. To further clarify the underlying dynamics, each scenario is illustrated with a fitting analogy that makes the characteristics of each possible future more tangible.

Key commonalities across the scenarios

Despite significant differences between the four futures, several clear common elements emerge:

• Migration to quantum‑safe encryption is essential in all scenarios. Regardless of when cryptographically relevant quantum computers become a reality, this remains a fundamental condition for secure digital communication.
• Technological dependencies and the importance of control points within value chains play a role in every scenario. Direct access to quantum computers, as well as indirect influence through components, knowledge positions and standards, are strategically significant.
• Robust governance and clear legal frameworks are crucial. Because decryption can take place invisibly, transparency, legitimacy and societal values are particularly important.
• International cooperation is a key factor, especially in scenarios involving asymmetric access to quantum computers. Coalition‑building and diplomatic networks are essential for maintaining access to knowledge and infrastructure and for establishing shared norms.

Conclusion

The four scenarios demonstrate that the emergence of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer can unfold in different ways, and they clarify which actions can already be taken today to remain agile and resilient across a range of possible futures.

A consistent insight across all scenarios is that waiting is not an option. Investment in quantum‑safe encryption is relevant in every scenario, as it protects information that might otherwise be decrypted in the future. Moreover, the Netherlands can remain a relevant global actor by securing strategic positions in value chains, even without possessing its own quantum computer. Finally, clear governance principles on access, deployment and responsible use are required to safeguard legitimacy, transparency and public trust.

Although the precise timeline remains uncertain, the scenarios show that the Netherlands must already prepare for a future in which quantum computers may fundamentally affect digital security.

Are you curious to explore how the four scenarios unfold in more detail, which risks and opportunities they reveal, and how the Netherlands can already prepare for such a future? The full report (in Dutch) offers an accessible and in-depth perspective on possible future worlds, and on what can be done today to be prepared.