How economic future choices shape the physical living environment of the Netherlands

This is shown in the report ‘Competitiveness and open strategic autonomy’ (in Dutch) by TNO Vector and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (IenW), Directorate-General for Strategic Policy Advice (ASA). The report shows that competitiveness is not only an economic issue, but also a spatial and societal choice – and provides policymakers with concrete tools to deal with this complex interplay.

These concrete tools are urgently needed. The Netherlands faces a dual challenge: strengthening its international competitiveness while reducing strategic dependencies, for example on raw materials and technology from abroad. Such economic choices have direct spatial consequences: where companies locate, how much water they use, and the pressure placed on infrastructure and the environment. At the same time, the physical limits of the living environment – such as space, water and environmental quality – are increasingly becoming decisive.

The report is one of the first results of a two-year knowledge programme launched last year by TNO Vector and IenW ASA. This programme focuses on strengthening the Netherlands’ earning capacity within the physical limits of space, water, infrastructure and the living environment. Within this programme, TNO Vector examines how economic developments, geopolitical dynamics and spatial choices are becoming increasingly intertwined and how they affect IenW’s policy domains.

Dealing with scarcity and complexity

The main challenge highlighted in the report is how to deal with scarcity and cumulative societal demands. Space in the Netherlands is limited and must be allocated competitively between housing, nature, infrastructure and economic activities.

In the ‘Industrial country’ scenario, demand for industrial space grows so strongly that a shortage of space could arise at the national level. At the same time, pressure on water use and environmental quality increases, leading to additional tension in permitting processes and policy decisions.

In contrast, the scenario of European open strategic autonomy (OSA) involves more targeted choices for strategic sectors. This creates opportunities to combine economic resilience with lower pressure on water use and emissions.

Impact on society and the living environment

The impact of these developments directly affects society. Consider the accessibility of cities, availability of drinking water, air quality, and space for housing and nature. The key message is clear: choices about the future economy of the Netherlands also determine what the country will physically look like and where opportunities or bottlenecks will arise.

Role of TNO Vector and IenW

With the new knowledge programme, TNO Vector and IenW play a key role in supporting economic choices. The programme focuses on innovation in the civil engineering sector, economic resilience, international competitiveness, and the future of ports and logistics corridors.

TNO Vector supports IenW ASA in addressing complex policy questions by explicitly linking economic insights to the physical living environment. This creates an integrated approach needed to make policy effective and future-proof.